ABOUT THE DATA

The 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth follows over 8,000 participants from their teens through their thirties, asking hundreds of questions and recording how the responses change throughout the study. This predictive analysis explores the changes in relationships, cohabitation, and marital status during this window of their lives.

The Longitudinal Chaos Index (LCI) is a measure of the objective chaos of a subject’s love life. The more changes in your cohabitation/marital status, the higher your LCI. The LCI is based on the survey question: "Respondent's marital status in this month in [1994-2016]," which was recorded every month after subjects' fourteenth birthday. There were six possible responses:

• Never Married, Not Cohabitating
• Never Married, Cohabitating
• Married
• Legally Separated
• Divorced
• Widowed

ABOUT THE MODEL

The LCI begins at zero for each subject and increases by one point with any change to the survey question's response. There are two exceptions:

• No change: "Never Married, Cohabitating" to "Married"
• +2 points: "Married" to "Divorced"

After calculating the survey subjects' LCIs, I categorized them into four qualitative measurements:

• Sad and Alone
• Happy Together
• It’s About the Journey
• Train Wreck

A simple model evaluated each survey question and determined which most affected LCI. A multiple linear regression model predicted LCI based on the top ten most predictive survey questions.

The study confirmed that people are hard to predict. Single variables did not strongly correlate with marital status. However, combining variables increased the accuracy of predictions and the utility of the model.

Continue below to calculate your own LCI!

PREDICT YOUR FUTURE

What was your marital status when you were in your early 30s? If younger, select your current marital status.	Never Married, Not Cohabitating Never Married, Cohabiting Married Legally Separated Divorced Widowed
Did you first have sexual intercourse before age 18?	Yes No
What was the relationship of the parent figure(s)/guardian(s) to the youth in your household when you were in your early 20s?	Both biological parents Two parents, biological mother Two parents, biological father Biological mother only Biological father only Adoptive parent(s) Foster parent(s) No parents, grandparents No parents, other relatives Anything else
How many miles away did your father live when you were in your early 20s?	Lived in the same household 1 to 5 Miles 6 to 10 Miles 11 to 30 Miles 31 to 60 Miles 61 to 100 Miles 101 to 200 Miles 201 to 400 Miles 401 to 700 Miles >700 Miles
How much of the time have you felt so down in the dumps that nothing could cheer you up when you were in your early 20s?	None of the time Some of the time Most of the time All of the time
How would you rank the frequency of substance use when you were in your late teens?	None of the time Some of the time Most of the time All of the time
How much do you agree or disagree that the following statement describes who you are and how you act? "When I was in school, I used to break rules quite regularly."	Disagree strongly Disagree moderately Disagree a little Neither agree nor disagree Agree a little Agree moderately Agree strongly
On a scale of 0 to 10, with higher scores indicating more incidents of deliquency, how would you rank your grade school delinquency?	0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Have you ever been arrested since the month you turned age 12?	Yes No
What percentage of your peers belonged to a gang that did illegal activities when you were in your late teens?	Almost none (less than 10%) About 25% About half (50%) About 75% Almost all (more than 90%)